Since the last update, the polls have shifted very slightly, in favour of the Conservative party. Nevertheless, it appears that it will still be one of the closest run elections of all time, with a trend towards a more multi party political landscape.

The data used in this document is from the BBC Poll of Polls, which looks at the seven most accredited polls and averages them out. This is arguably the most accurate way to look at polls, nevertheless, polls change on a daily basis, in particular during the election campaign and therefore these predictions are based on data from the 23 April 2015 and do not predict any up or downturn in polls for any party. Neither do they pretend to predict what the eventual outcome will be, but they are useful to give an indication of the current direction of travel. 

For comments on how could the election affect business schools, please see post of 13 April 

2015 General Election Predictions

Current UK Polling Report Average

      Conservative         Labour      Lib Dems         UKIP     Greens        SNP    Others

23 April 2015            34                    33                 8.5           13.5           5              4          2

10 April 2015            33                    34                  9              14             5              4         3

18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).

Below are selections of graphs which predict the outcome of the general election and possible permutations if coalitions are agreed.

As the UK voting system is not proportionally represented, predicting the number of seats a party might win is always difficult, as this does not take into consideration the power of an incumbent MP as well as parties receiving a lot of support in a concentrated number of constituencies with little support nationwide. Nevertheless, using may2015.com, which formulates the national swing on a seat by seat basis, whilst incorporating Lord Ashcroft’s most marginal seats polls, we can get perhaps the most comprehensive prediction of the outcome of the election using current polling statistics.

Forming a government

There are 650 parliamentary seats, meaning a party needs 326 for a majority. However, Sinn Fein do not traditionally take their seats in Westminster, as a result they do not vote, also the Speaker of the House is Conservative and cannot vote. Therefore, for the Conservatives to obtain a majority, they would actually need to get 323 seats, whereas the rest of the parties would need 322 seats to form a government.

The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.

18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).

Majority needed – 326

Conservative Party seats needed– 323

Other party seats needed – 322

Outcome – no one party can form a majority government.

The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).

Majority needed – 326

Conservative Party seats needed– 323

Other party seats needed - 323

Outcome – Does not reach the 326 required to run as a majority government, 24 short

The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway. 18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).

Majority needed – 326

Conservative Party seats needed– 323

Other party seats needed – 322

Outcome – Does not reach the 326 required to run as a majority government, 4 short – this has been the most significant change in the polls, as this was the most likely outcome for a government to be formed – also with Labour falling behind in the polls, it would seem difficult to form a government only being the second party. However, it would meet the 322 needed to run as a government.

The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway. 18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).

Majority needed – 326

Conservative Party seats needed– 323

Other party seats needed - 322

Outcome – Does not reach the 326 required to run as a majority government, 34 short

The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.

18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).

Majority needed – 326

Conservative Party seats needed– 323

Other party seats needed - 322

Outcome – Can run as a majority government, majority of 21

Conclusion

Whilst the polls have not moved a great deal, there has been a significant change in possible outcomes. The Conservatives are now the largest party and if it stays this way, would get the first chance to form a government. However, their only likely coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats, are still forecast to lose a large number of seats, which means that a coalition would not reach the required 326 seats.

The Conservatives would have to decide either to run as a minority government alone, run as a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats, or allow Labour to try to form a government. With the polls the way they are now, the third option looks the most likely as the Conservatives fall a significant number of seats short of forming a minority government alone. That means that blocking legislation would be relatively easy for the opposition parties and would likely lead to a vote of no confidence early on in the new parliament.

Therefore, the Labour party could have an opportunity to form a government. The significance of the latest polls is that a Labour/SNP agreement would leave them short of a majority by 4 seats. However, despite being mathematically enough to form a government, it would be with a minority from a party that only received the second highest number of votes in agreement with a party who only contest Scottish seats. This would be a very unstable alliance and one that is also unlikely to last long before a vote of no confidence is called.

What is clear is that with just over a week before the nation goes to the polls, we are no clearer on who will be in number 10 come May the 8^th. The famous election retort of ‘it’s too close to call’, was made for elections like this one.

The polls will be updated on a weekly basis, leading right up to polling day. If you would like to receive the updated polls, please contact James Newhall at jnewhall@the-abs.org.uk