Facing a new US trade war: What UK universities must do

Disruption will come, says Rayhan Abdullah Zakaria CMBE, the question is: will UK universities be ready to navigate the global storm? In this blog, he suggests what UK universities must do to get ready.

Picture this: It’s a rainy Tuesday afternoon, the kind of day where the sky is grey and heavy, mirroring the weight of the global headlines I’ve just read. As a Senior Fellow of Advance HE, and CMBE, deeply involved in teaching, research, and mentoring postgrads, I can’t help but reflect on how those distant rumblings - another trade war triggered by Donald Trump’s return - might hit a little too close to home.

We’ve seen this movie before, haven’t we? Tariffs rise, partnerships strain, and supply chains snap under pressure. But this time, I worry it’s not just about the economy. It’s about academia - our students, our research, our future.

After navigating the aftershocks of Brexit, the global pandemic, and shifting international student flows, UK universities have proven we’re resilient. But I fear resilience isn't enough anymore. Now, we must be agile - ready to pivot at a moment’s notice. Because make no mistake, another wave of U.S. protectionism could reshape the very foundations of how we teach, research, and collaborate.

Let me take you through five ways this storm might hit - and how we can get ready.

1. The research roadblock

One of my academic colleagues tells me his PhD student recently hit a snag - an essential component for their research, sourced from China, was delayed due to shipping issues. It made me think: What happens if those supply chains are further disrupted by tariffs? You see, our research ecosystem depends on timely access to global materials. I fear a tariff war could drive up costs, delay projects, and stall innovation.

What can we do?

We must start by building  strategic reserves of critical supplies by strengthening our partnerships with suppliers in South Korea, Taiwan, and Europe. And perhaps, most powerfully, join forces across institutions to negotiate as a collective. We must also push for research carve-outs in UK trade negotiations—it’s imperative that our voices must be heard.

2. The tightrope of international partnerships

I remember the buzz of a joint symposium we held few years back with both US and Chinese academics. It was electric, a true meeting of minds. Sadly, I feel under a renewed trade war, these kinds of collaborations may come under intense scrutiny -especially in STEM.

What we can do:

As academics we’ll need to walk a fine line, navigating tensions without sacrificing the partnerships we’ve built over the years. To do this, we should start by creating clear, ethical policies for international cooperation. We must diversify our global engagement - such as within the Europe, the Global South, and the emerging economies as they offer new possibilities. Our new goal should be to build new research tracks that can operate independently of any one geopolitical relationship.

 3. Shifting student tides

I think the US visa policies may tighten further, this could mean - many Chinese students may turn to the UK. On the surface, that sounds like an opportunity, but I’m cautious here, because, more students mean more expectations, more infrastructure, and more geopolitical complexity.

What we can do:

It’s a given that we’ll need to expand recruitment in other regions - Nigeria, Vietnam, Brazil and the GCC countries looks promising. We need to create more flexible pathways into higher education. We should also Improve post-study work prospects and invest in alumni networks that turn temporary students into lifelong ambassadors.

 4. Economic shockwaves and institutional budgets

As always in times of global instability, funding dries up. I’ve seen it happen - grants shrink, hiring freezes set in, and sadly, innovation gets shelved. I feel Trump’s trade war could amplify this. Industry partnerships might falter. Philanthropic giving might slow. Budgets could tighten.

What we can do:

To weather this, I think universities must diversify income streams, we need to focus on recession-resistant sectors and use surplus to build financial reserves. In other words, strategic planning today is the buffer for tomorrow.

5. Endowments and market volatility

Though our endowments in the UK aren’t on the scale of Harvard or Yale, they matter - especially for scholarships, infrastructure, and early-stage research. A global trade war could shake the markets, hitting returns.

What we can do:

We should start by rebalancing our investments by reducing our exposure to high-risk assets. At the same time we should adopt nimble governance models that allow for quick pivots. I feel that in uncertain times, cautious financial stewardship becomes a strategic asset.

In conclusion: The power of agility

So, as the rain taps against the window and the storm brews beyond our shores, I find myself hopeful. Because we’ve done this before. We’ve adapted. We’ve led. The universities that thrive will be the ones that build agility into their DNA. Let’s prepare for all scenarios, diversify revenue models, remain flexible in recruitment and research, and engage with policymakers to shape - not just react to - the global narrative.

Because disruption will come. The question is: will we be ready?

I'd love to hear how your institution is preparing. Share your thoughts, because if there’s one thing academia excels at, it’s collective wisdom.