General Election 2015 – Analysis from James Newhall
With the forthcoming general election less than a month away, it appears that it will be one of the closest run elections of all time, with a trend towards a more multi party political landscape.
The data used in this document is from the BBC Poll of Polls, which looks at the seven most accredited polls and averages them out. This is arguably the most accurate way to look at polls, nevertheless, polls change on a daily basis, in particular during the election campaign and therefore these predictions are based on data from the 10 April 2015 and do not predict any up or downturn in polls for any party. Neither do they pretend to predict what the eventual outcome will be, but they are useful to give an indication of the current direction of travel.
How could the election effect business schools?
Conservative
The number one issue that has faced business schools since the Conservative led government took power in 2010, is Tier 4 Visas. At the moment, international students are included in their net migration targets. There is no indication that if the Conservatives win the general election, the policy of students being included in net migration targets will change.
However, a more recent issue that is likely to affect business schools is tuition fees. Under a Conservative led government, the coalition passed legislation in 2010 to raise the cap on fees to £9,000. Whilst the Conservatives have not made any pledges to increase this cap, they have stated that a reduction will not happen. Therefore a minimum £9,000 cap is likely to stay.
Labour
Labour has stated that it will not include international students in net migration targets as they do not consider students to be migrants. As this is not a legislative issue, Labour would be able to remove students from the targets with little effort and have already started talks with the Home Office to implement this, if they win a majority in the election.
Labour also stated that they will reduce tuition fees to a £6,000 cap and that they would implement this policy by autumn 2016.
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats would not set a net migration target; therefore there would not be a restriction on students entering.
The Liberal Democrats have not made any pledges on tuition fees.
UKIP
UKIP would not include international students in their net migration targets. However, UKIP have pledged that they will treat EU students the same as non-EU students and charge them the same tuitions fees as non-EU students.
UKIP will scrap tuition fees for STEM subjects – Science, technology, engineering and mathematics. They have not made any commitment on fees for other subjects.
SNP
Whilst the SNP cannot win a majority at the forthcoming election (they are only standing in 59 seats) they could play a significant role in who wins, and could even find themselves in government. The SNP would not set migration targets.
The SNP would maintain free tuition fees in Scotland and have not made any indication of intentions for students in other nations.
General Election 2015: Data Predictions
Current UK Polling Report Average (as of 10 April 2015)
Conservative Labour Lib Dems UKIP Greens SNP Others
33 34 9 14 5 4 3
18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Below are selections of graphs which predict the outcome of the general election and possible permutations if coalitions are agreed.
As the UK voting system is not proportionally represented, predicting the number of seats a party might win is always difficult, as this does not take into consideration the power of an incumbent MP as well as parties receiving a lot of support in a concentrated number of constituencies with little support nationwide. Nevertheless, using may2015.com, which formulates the national swing on a seat by seat basis, whilst incorporating Lord Ashcroft’s most marginal seats polls, we can get perhaps the most comprehensive prediction of the outcome of the election using current polling statistics.
The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.
18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Majority needed – 326
Outcome – no one party can form a majority government.
The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.
18 Northern Ireland seats not included (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Majority needed – 326
Outcome – Does not reach the 326 required to run as a majority government, 33 short
The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.
18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Majority needed – 326
Outcome – Does not reach the 326 required to run as a majority government, 22 short
The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.
18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Majority needed – 326
Outcome – Can run as a majority government, majority of 5
The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.
18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Majority needed – 326
Outcome – Does not reach the 326 required to run as a majority government, 23 short
The "Others" are 3 Plaid Cymru and 1 George Galloway.
18 Northern Ireland seats – only DUP have been included as a possible coalition partner with the Conservatives (main parties: 8 DUP, 5 Sinn Fein and 3 SDLP).
Majority needed – 326
Outcome – Can run as a majority government, majority of 31
Conclusion
With no single party predicted to have sufficient seats to form a majority government, it is likely that there will be a coalition government for the second successive term. With the SNP ruling out a coalition with the Conservatives and Labour ruling out a coalition with the SNP, potential coalitions are limited. A two party coalition is far more sustainable than a coalition that has more than two parties. Therefore, the only likely coalitions the pollsters suggest could occur come May 7th are Conservatives/Lib Dem, Labour/Lib Dem, and a Labour/SNP agreement.
With most coalitions, the party with the largest number of seats will usually dictate policy, and this is likely to be the case with tuition fees and including or excluding students from net migration targets. Therefore, under a Conservative/ Lib Dem coalition, it is unlikely that these two policies would face any change.
Whilst Labour have ruled out a coalition with the SNP, they have stopped short of ruling out an agreement, which they could run as a minority government but have the SNPs backing on the most important votes, for example, the budget.
Under a Labour led government, they are likely to take students out of net migration figures, without objection from either the SNP or Lib Dems. The SNP are also likely to have no issues supporting Labour’s tuition fees reduction, as long as it does not affect tuition fees in Scotland. The Lib Dems on the other hand, who up until the 2010 election, campaigned for scrapping tuition fees, have publicly denounced Labour’s £6,000 student fee proposal. Therefore, an agreement between the two parties on this policy is unlikely and the Lib Dems would likely be given a free vote on the issue, which would make passing this legislation a difficult proposition.
With just over three weeks to polling day it is unclear who will be in government come May 7th. Historically, Labour tends to poll weaker the closer it gets to an election. With Ed Miliband having an opinion rating as low as 13% in recent weeks, compared to David Cameron’s at 56% there is still plenty of time for one of the two main parties to gain on their opponents.
The polls will be updated on a weekly basis, leading right up to polling day. If you would like to receive the updated polls, please contact James Newhall at jnewhall@the-abs.org.uk
